CNet reports that Morgan Stanley Analyst, Katy Huberty says iPhone shipments will hit at least 29 million last quarter. Our analysis based on our social media power metrics of consumer demand say that Katy is being more conservative than the market realizes. Our quarter to quarter analysis of consumer demand through our Experience Equity metrics show a surge in demand last quarter for iPhones, especially the iPhone 5. We saw the first major drop in demand for the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S handsets as price conscious consumers got their deal fix. iPhone 5 demand was buoyed by one of the most aggressive ad campaigns we’ve seen from Apple to date judging by the promotion emails even to our recruiting email at Argus Insights.
Apple has also been helped by retail partners getting creative with iPhone 5 specials such as Best Buy’s well received iPhone trade-in promotion in which qualified consumers could walk out with a brand new iPhone 5 for the cost of sales tax. The iPhone 5 was also helped by the lackluster launch of the Galaxy S4, which many consumers waited to see if it would compete with the iPhone. We see the results of the aggressive promotions, Samsung snafus and resulting increase in purchasing behavior in the proprietary way we track consumer demand.
So what’s our guess? Based on the rough analysis we’ve done, iPhone sales will be north of 30 million (as high as mid 30’s to be honest) and more iPhone 5’s than in the past, giving a corresponding boost to both revenue and earnings for Apple in Q2 (fiscal Q3). As a result, Wall Street should be pretty delighted by what Apple feeds them during the earnings call.